The idea of generations is not a new one. But the authors William Strauss and Neil Howe came up with a theory that could potentially allow us to reasonably predict the future. They have detailed the generational history of the U.S. population and found reoccurring rhythmic themes that can be used to look into the future!
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Script:
Months ago I was listening to an interview with Tony Robbins who said that if he could recommend any book to read he would recommend a book published in 1991 called Generations: The History of America’s Future. Because it was Tony Robbins, and I treat everything he says as gold, I had to read it. In it, the authors William Strauss and Neil Howe argue that there are themes in the past which we can use to make predictions about the course of the future. As skeptical as I was at first, the more I read, the more it seemed to make sense. Many might say that the authors are trying to determine the future of millions of people who have yet to be born. But that isn’t really what they’re talking about. Their book takes a broad look at the generations of people over the past 500 years of U.S. history and has found reoccurring themes in the “personality” of each generation and in how generations follow repeating patterns. They found that there are four reoccurring types of generations, that each generation lasts on average 22 years, and that the four types of generations arrive in the same repeating sequence. By understanding this, we can potentially predict the characteristics of the next generation of people along with probable reactions that generations may have to historical events. The authors make no claim that the future can be determined, but instead state that it is history that makes the generation while simultaneously the generation making history.
The first important thing to understand in Howe’s and Strauss’ theory is what they mean by generation. A generation is a cohort of people who have been born over the same time span of around 22 years – or about the length of one phase of life (like the length of childhood, young adulthood, midlife, and old age). Members of a generation share three things in common.
1. they have been born during the same time in history – in other words they have encountered the same key historical events. As a millennial, for example, I witnessed 9/11 during roughly the same time period in my life as all other millennials – childhood
And because people are shaped by the events they encounter, this leads us to
2. How they adapt similar beliefs and behaviors. As a reaction to the strong anti-Islamic sentiments after the 9/11 attacks, many of us millennials have reacted in the opposite way as our parents and country’s leaders, showing strong disapproval of generalized anti-Muslim sentiment and instead a more optimistic and open view of Muslims.
And because of each generation’s awareness of the traits they share with their peers they
3. have a sense of common perceived membership in that generation. Of course, as a millennial I feel more part of the millennial generation than any other generation.
The most recent generations have been the Baby Boomers which began in 1943 and ended in 1960, lasting 23 years. During their formative years some key historical events that the Boomers have encountered is the end of WWII, and the beginning of the Counter-Culture Movement. After the Boomers are the Gen Xers who are made up of people born between 1961 and 1981. After the Gen Xers are, the Millennials born from 1982 to 2004. And most recently the Homeland Generation born from 2005 on. What’s most interesting about the idea about generations of people, is that it is not a new one. In fact some of the past’s greatest thinkers have outlined the idea of a generation in a similar way as Strauss and Howe. Some include Polybius, Ibn Khaldun, and Jose Ortega y Gasset. The pilsopher Lewis Mumford also once said that “Every generation revolts against its fathers and makes friends with its grandfathers.” Which leads us to the next key idea: turnings.
As mentioned before, each generation lasts around 22 years and goes through particular historical and social events together. These events are called turnings and just as a generation lasts around 22 years, so do turnings. Turnings happen in a four-stage consecutive cycle and each has been given a particular name. Howe’s and Strauss’ have detailed them in U.S. history from 1435 to the present day. A full cycle of the four turnings lasts between 80-90 years. An easier way to think about a turning is to think of it as kind of like a historical mood or season.
